At the time of writing, Intel is up 24% after Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment and a partnership to build custom CPUs for AI data centers and new PC processors with Nvidia graphics built in.
Intel has been publicly traded since 1980, with an adjusted all-time high of about $62 in 2021. It’s the type of company we look for: long-standing businesses that have fallen out of favor but still hold critical assets.
Earlier this year, President Trump announced the U.S. government would take a 10% stake in Intel to strengthen domestic chip manufacturing. That deal closed — and now Nvidia has stepped in with a major investment of its own.
We bought Intel back in April at an average price of $17.85. With today’s move, the stock is up 76% since our entry. Now we wonder if it’s time to take profits.
Historically, Intel’s average stock price looks to be in the $30–$40 range, suggesting it’s currently trading near fair value. But Nvidia’s success shows how powerful AI can be in driving growth. With Intel now positioned in multiple large partnerships, its future is harder to predict.
We’re going to continue to hold. The current price may not remain steady, but we believe Intel is a long-term play worth being in. The upside from AI makes the possibilities far greater than where shares sit today.
Markets like this are tough to trade, especially for a contrarian like me. I’ll admit: I thought we’d see a steady drop back in 2024. Prices were rising, jobs were getting harder to find, houses were becoming less affordable, and most statistics pointed toward a recession.
Fast forward nearly two years, and here we are at the end of 2025. The S&P 500 is at record highs despite a constant flow of negative headlines. Any time I’ve tried to short the market, it has resulted in losses. Easy lending conditions and inflation appear to have fueled what some analysts are calling “The Great Melt-Up.”
Why the Media Predicts a Recession
For the past few years, statistics showed:
Inflation soaring
Unemployment rising
Unattainable home prices
Record debt
Usually, those are the signs that point to a slowdown. In the past, this combination has been enough to push the economy into a recession and drag stocks down.
Real-Life Spending and Consumer Confidence
Despite the data, what I see around me shows a different story. I live in a small, working-class area. My neighbors aren’t particularly wealthy. And yet, I’ve seen brand-new driveways poured, major home remodels, and plenty of new vehicles on the road.
Online, you’ll read endless complaints about car prices and interest rates — but people are still buying.
Rising Debt, Longer Loans, and What It Means for the Economy
Of course, there may be other reasons for the increased spending. Seven-year auto loans are more common than ever, making up almost 20% of new vehicle financing — up 7% since 2019. Americans are also carrying record-high credit card balances, while late payments have surged to levels not seen in over a decade. On paper, it looks like families are stretched thin and living beyond their means.
However, once you adjust for inflation, the increase in debt doesn’t look as extreme. Yes, people owe more, but the size of the economy has also grown. What looks like a spike might actually be a sustained climb when put in context.
So if the numbers spell out an incoming recession, why hasn’t it happened yet?
What 2008 and the Dot-Com Bubble Teach Us About Today’s Market
Even if the average person is willing to spend first and worry later, banks usually aren’t. They’re careful about who they lend money to because their survival depends on getting paid back.
Still, there are exceptions. The 2008 housing crisis is the clearest example. Reckless lending and adjustable-rate mortgages left many homeowners exposed. When rates rose, they couldn’t keep up with payments, and the system collapsed.
Why would banks take on that risk if they think people won’t pay? Either banks are making a massive mistake, or families are stronger financially than the headlines suggest.
This isn’t the first time we’ve seen this. In the late 1990s, many experts warned that tech stocks were overpriced — and they were — but it took years for that bubble to finally pop. Before 2008, rising debt and risky loans were obvious, but the system held together until the housing crash set everything off.
The lesson is simple: warning signs may be real, but the timing of when they matter is unpredictable.
How Inflation and Assets Are Shaping Investment Strategy
Another key lesson is the value of owning assets. Families with homes, stocks, or other investments have seen their net worth spike even as wages have stagnated. This discrepancy helps explain why, even in an economy that seems tough, households that own appear to be doing fine.
For anyone looking to build out their portfolio, some financial institutions are beginning to recommend holding more long-term bonds than they have in the past. It’s a noticeable shift from what we’ve seen over the last 20 years. One that may be worth considering going forward.
What’s Next?
So what should we take from all this? Either the American financial system is sitting on a shaky foundation, waiting for fear and panic, or families are proving tougher and more adaptable than statistics show.
The truth may be a bit of both. Debt could eventually weigh people down, but for now, steady spending, government support, and business flexibility are keeping things going.
With so much at stake, I’m cautious. But this season has been a reminder that the headlines don’t always tell the full story. Attitudes, momentum, and consumption culture can keep things afloat longer than anyone expects.
The cracks are obvious. The real question is whether they’ll break the system or reveal a stronger foundation beneath.
FOMC Minutes – The Fed’s detailed record of its latest policy meeting at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, August 20.
Jackson Hole Symposium – Press conference from Jerome Powell at 10 a.m. ET on Friday, August 22.
Nvidia Earnings – After the bell on Wednesday, August 27.
S&P 500 Technical Levels
Support: 6410, then 6300
Resistance: ~6500
S&P 500 Forecast
The S&P is holding above its upper trend line — a bullish sign — but daily MFI on SPY has slipped below 50. Momentum looks slow above the upper line of the channel.
This has been the case of the last couple of years. Technical signals have often failed to mark clear entry and exit points. Some analysts blame inflation’s distortions, while others point to the outsized influence of mega caps like NVDA, META, and AAPL. It could be a combination of both or even investor fears growing under the surface.
For now, the trend remains intact as long as the S&P holds 6000. Still, it seems investors are hesitant to rotate into less-popular names. Consequently, short-term strength appears concentrated in a few market leaders.
If fear continues to fade, we expect the best opportunities to come from a “snap-back” in laggards — many of which sit in our portfolio. We’ll keep watching for those setups.
In the meantime, check out our portfolio page for more information. Intel, Nike, and PepsiCo have performed particularly well over the last few weeks.
AMD Earnings – After the bell tomorrow, August 5th
CPI – Next Tuesday, August 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET
S&P 500 Technical Levels
Support: 6279, then 6090
Resistance: 6400
S&P 500 Forecast
The S&P pulled back after testing the upper end of its bull channel — a move that suggests a broader pullback may be coming. However, today’s rebound shows the market still has strength. We’re watching to see if this is a bounce back to resistance or just a gap fill.
As I’ve mentioned in previous briefings, market breadth continues to widen. Our own portfolio — mostly made up of underperformers like PayPal, PepsiCo, and Intel — has taken a hit over the last few sessions.
When speculation is driving the market, we typically see strength across all sectors. But right now, it’s isolated to a handful of tech giants. That lack of market participation is why we’re being cautious.
The S&P just filled the gap today from Thursday’s sell off. If the market is able to march higher tomorrow, it’s likely we’ll see another retest of 6400.
Core PCE & Jobless Claims: Thursday, July 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET
July Nonfarm Payrolls: Friday, August 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET
S&P 500 Technical Levels
Note that the S&P is still at the upper range of its bull channel.
Support: 6300, then 6090
Resistance: 6400
S&P 500 Forecast
The Fed held rates steady today as expected. While the market initially reacted poorly to Powell’s conference, it recovered completely into the close.
Most stocks finished the day lower, but Microsoft and Meta rallied on earnings. Nvidia stayed green as well, still moving higher tonight. This narrow leadership has been in place for a while, but it’s getting harder to ignore. When these few giants eventually fall out of favor, the S&P will have a harder time standing on its own.
PCE is tomorrow and payrolls on Friday, so we expect more volatility. If inflation cools and job growth eases, the market could finally get the rate‑cut signal it’s been waiting for. If not, Powell’s “wait and see” could turn into “wait even longer,” and we’ll see how much patience investors really have.
In last Sunday’s briefing, I mentioned that the breakout momentum felt sluggish — but Wednesday showed real strength. Bullish momentum is picking up, just as the S&P approaches resistance at 6400.
A friend shared a chart on StockTwits showing a monthly bull channel dating back to 2016. Right now, the index is pressing against the top of that channel. I highly suggest taking a look at his post for added context.
If his thesis plays out, the S&P could pull back 10–20% and still remain in its long-term uptrend. That kind of move would cause fear, but technically, it could be healthy. We don’t trade off one person’s chart, but it’s worth considering.
FOMC July Rate Decision
The market’s latest push higher could be a preemptive move for the upcoming FOMC meeting. The decision is scheduled for Wednesday at 2 p.m., and investors overwhelmingly expect no change. Whether this is one push higher before a downturn or front-running a breakout is yet to be seen.
Even if rates stay the same, Powell’s comments on the path ahead, and how soon cuts might come, will almost certainly cause volatility. Keep an eye on the S&P on Wednesday — particularly in how it closes — for indication of future direction.
President Trump continues to pressure Powell for lower rates, even floating the idea of replacing him if he doesn’t deliver. That kind of uncertainty could quickly inject fear back into the market, and may work its way into Powell’s conference following the rate decision.
After a few weeks of sideways trading, the S&P is making new highs. As long as we stay above 6300, bulls are in control.
On the flip side, momentum feels a bit sluggish. That doesn’t mean a big drop is coming, but investors may be waiting for a pullback before entering. It’s something we’re considering.
Like we mentioned in Sunday’s briefing, we think the better opportunities are in a handful of beaten-down names, not the usual big tech stocks. You’ll find our favorites in our portfolio section.
Trump, Tariffs, and Public Dissent
There was a lot of fear earlier this year around Trump’s economic approach, but so far, markets have brushed it off. Even his public shots at Powell — and pushback from other lawmakers — haven’t changed much.
The VIX, which tracks market volatility, is around 15. That’s above historic lows near 9, but still low enough to suggest investors are getting comfortable. The market tends to swing like a pendulum, and fear often spikes after periods of complacency.
FINRA is working to lower the $25,000 minimum equity requirement for Pattern Day Traders (PDT). Currently, investors with less than $25,000 in their account are limited to three day trades — buying and selling the same stock in one day — within five rolling business days. If they exceed that limit, brokers flag the account and restrict trading until the balance is brought above $25,000.
Many news outlets covering FINRA’s proposed changes focus solely on margin borrowing — but for active retail traders, the real win is flexibility.
While margin accounts do allow traders to borrow funds, they also help avoid Good Faith Violations (GFVs).
What Is a Good Faith Violation (GFV)?
A GFV occurs in a cash account when a trader sells a stock and uses the unsettled funds to buy another — then sells that second stock before the original trade settles. Under T+1 settlement rules (recently changed from T+2), buying power isn’t restored until the next business day.
With too many violations, brokers can restrict the account for up to 90 days, requiring all trades to be fully settled in advance, blocking short-term trading.
Why Margin Accounts Matter
Using a margin account instead of a cash account allows traders to place trades with unsettled funds without violating settlement rules. Even if no actual borrowing takes place, the broker technically fronts the funds using margin until trades settle.
However, traders are still regulated. If that margin account is under $25,000 and a fourth day trade is placed within five business days, the account is flagged as a PDT and restricted. That’s why many small-account traders avoid margin accounts entirely — leaving them vulnerable to GFVs.
What the New Rule Could Change
FINRA is finalizing a proposal to lower the PDT threshold from $25,000 to just $2,000, with individual brokerages setting their own risk controls and margin policies. If approved, the change could unlock margin accounts’ core advantage — flexibility — for smaller retail traders.
A trader with $5,000 or $10,000 could:
Avoid GFVs while trading more actively
Bypass T+1 settlement delays
Use a margin account for flexibility, not just leverage
Break Out Insight
I generally don’t encourage new or inexperienced traders to use leverage. Cash accounts have guardrails — you can’t lose more than you invest, and you’re limited from trading futures or shorting stocks.
Margin accounts, however, can amplify losses beyond your original investment, leading to serious financial and emotional consequences. There have been several cases where unexpected losses drove traders to take their own lives.
That said, FINRA’s proposed change could genuinely benefit smaller traders, offering greater access, more flexibility, and fewer restrictions. I believe it is up to the individual investor — not FINRA — to make the right call on margin.
The S&P has failed to extend its breakout since the beginning of the month. If Monday opens or closes above 6300 with momentum, it could signal more bullishness ahead of the FOMC meeting. Likewise, if price stays near or below 6300, it may suggest that investors are waiting on Powell’s guidance and the rate decision.
With the strong V-shaped recovery since Trump’s tariffs and little to no pullback, we’re advocating for caution at these price levels. For bullish investors, we believe there’s more upside potential in beat-down names like Intel (INTC), PayPal (PYPL), and Nike (NKE).
What is wealth? Ask around and you’ll receive all sorts of answers. Some definitions of wealth are textbook, others controversial, and many are quiet and personal. Wealth, as it turns out, is a very difficult thing to measure.
Personal Definitions of Wealth
I’ve found wealth to fall into four main pursuits. Some may relate solely with one, while others desire aspects of each.
Person A: Material Wealth
Scroll social media, and wealth often means having a big house, an expensive car, and extravagant trips. It might mean dining at top restaurants whenever you please, splurging on a $1,000 bottle of champagne, or having a closet filled with designer brands.
Person B: Independence Wealth
Others desire the freedom to walk away from a job without financial worry — often referred to as “FU money.” Is your boss unbearable? FU money grants the freedom to confidently say, “I don’t need you.”
Person C: Time Wealth
Some view wealth as the freedom to choose how they spend their time. It may align with owning their own business, a concept we’ve discussed here at Break Out Money Guys. To these individuals, true wealth is doing what you want, whenever you choose.
Person D: Relational Wealth
The most noble explanation — one I personally resonate with — is relational wealth. This means having family who love you, friends who enjoy your company, and the freedom to spend meaningful time with those who matter most.
Different Types of Wealth: What Do You Value?
If wealth is measured based on what people value, and people value different things, how can we answer what wealth actually is?
Person A values material wealth because they associate significance and status with physical possessions and their monetary worth.
Person B values independence and control, desiring financial independence to avoid being subjected to authority or values they don’t share.
Person C highly values their time, acknowledging time freedom as life’s most precious resource. Who truly wants to spend their days on menial tasks when more fulfilling activities exist?
Person D places the highest value in relationships. For them, relational wealth is paramount — marriage, family, friendships, and community take precedence over material possessions.
Despite their contrast, each perspective is tied together by one critical element: value.
The True Meaning of Wealth at Break Out Money Guys
Wealth isn’t measured by the amount of money in your bank account, but by the life you choose to live each day. What your life demonstrates — directly or indirectly — is a powerful and overlooked indicator of your true wealth.
That’s why our conversations at BOMG often venture into areas like discipline, mindset, relationships, and worldview. David and I ground our wisdom in a biblical perspective on wealth. Our worldview isn’t just rooted in our faith — it’s the very foundation everything else is built on.
You might disagree, and that’s okay. If we didn’t genuinely believe our thoughts were of value, we wouldn’t be sharing them. Our perspective may appear unconventional or even countercultural — but so is what the Bible teaches.
Reflecting on Your Personal Definition of Wealth
Whether or not you share our beliefs, I encourage you to take some time to reflect on what matters most to you. In today’s fast-paced environment, soul-searching is rare. We crave quick insights and fast-food wisdom. But if you’ve read this far, take a moment to pause and ask yourself:
What do I want my life to be about?
What am I truly building toward, and is it worthy of my effort?
If everything I’m chasing becomes reality tomorrow, will I be fulfilled?
You may discover that the goals you’re pursuing aren’t as satisfying or meaningful as you expected. True wealth, after all, is simply possessing what we cherish most.
“You will make more money by working really hard and getting promoted at your office job than doing a bunch of side hustles.”
It’s a reasonable point. Plenty of would-be entrepreneurs buy a domain, open an online store, boost a Facebook post, and then quietly let the whole thing fizzle. But what about the people who stick with it? Should they instead channel that energy into climbing the corporate ladder?
Paychecks vs. Ownership
Most American families rely on a paycheck. Salaries, hourly wages, pensions, or Social Security checks sustain the vast majority, especially the bottom 90% of earners, whose income comes primarily — if not exclusively — from labor.
But the game shifts at the top. The highest-earning 10% earn much more of their wealth from assets they own rather than the hours they work. Real estate, stocks, and private businesses generate returns that far outpace wage growth. Risk-taking, it turns out, often pays better than productivity alone.
Americans know this. Social media is littered with complaints that the system is broken — the American dream is out of reach for the majority now. Instead of complaining, ask yourself how you can use the system to your advantage.
For those looking scale their hobby into a successful business, the statistics are there. Solo business operators pull in median incomes around $85,000 annually. Add a few employees (between two and five), and that number jumps to $135,000. But the biggest jump occurs with businesses that have six or more employees. These owners, on average, earn around $237,000 annually.
Beyond annual income, owning a business also contributes to wealth. On average, households that own businesses have net worths two to seven times higher than those that don’t. Even single-employee business owners out-earn typical employees. Business ownership offers additional strategic advantages, such as control over income timing, tax planning, and more effective retirement strategies.
In short, business ownership offers leverage, scalability, and direct equity in the growth you create. Most people won’t take the time to explore their options, but these also aren’t the people starting businesses.
Why Ownership Often Wins
The U.S. economy consistently rewards risk more than hard work alone. From 2021 to 2022, business income grew almost twice as fast as labor income, according to the Congressional Budget Office. While wage-dependent households spend more hours just to keep up, those with ownership stakes watch their assets appreciate.
Source: CBO – “The Distribution of Household Income in 2021”
Jobs can offer stability, but only until inflation outpaces your income or your boss decides you’re too expensive. Long-term financial security usually requires owning at least one asset capable of growth. For many, this is property. But if you are savvy enough, a business is an excellent way to leverage your income.
By all means, work hard in your day job, but think about starting a business, too. It’s about investing in something that grows beyond your immediate effort and may lead to so much more.
My apologies for missing the update in May. The last few months haven’t been particularly thrilling with my portfolio. My positions aren’t picked on hype or social media. In fact, most of my positions will likely stay under the radar until sentiment shifts.
That said, I believe in staying aware. Always know what you own. And if a pick turns out to be a dud, don’t cling to it hoping for a miracle. Cut it and move on.
Here’s a quick rundown of my current positions.
Intel (INTC)
Last Tuesday, Intel had a strong green day and outperformed its peers. Unfortunately, bullish sentiment fizzled pretty quick the following day.
I’m not interested in adding to or cutting this position until price moves well outside its accumulation zone. Until then, it just sits.
Nike (NKE)
Nike is also quite boring right now. However, it’s trading at its 200 monthly moving average, so I was okay taking the risk.
Key Points:
Overblown fears from tariffs, consumer sentiment, and competition
Trading at 2015 levels
A nice 2.6% dividend while I wait
There’s not anything exciting going on with the company, but they have years of history, name recognition, and make high-level products. I don’t expect Nike to lose too much market share anytime soon.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
This ETF is a place to park capital while I wait for the economy to clear up.
Key Points:
4.4% dividend — higher than high-yield savings accounts right now
Clear accumulation volume
Less volatile than equities
Because the direction of the US economy is so uncertain, this is a safe place to park money. I will mention that Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, has said there will be cracks in the bond market. If he’s right, this would not be good for TLT.
PepsiCo (PEP)
PepsiCo is the only stock on this list that I plan to own forever.
Key Points:
Defensive — holds up in recessions
Low volatility
Strong price history spanning 40+ years
With PepsiCo’s strong market position, this is a company I don’t mind being early in. I am interested in adding to my position anywhere between $135 and $90.
SiriusXM (SIRI)
SiriusXM is a company I thought I’d never hear of again, until I found out Warren Buffett owned over 30%.
Key Points:
5% dividend
Steady revenue and subscriber base
This one won’t be making any fireworks, but it’s a good place to park money and collect 5%.
Devon Energy (DVN) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
I bought both of these for the same reason — exposure to oil.
Key Points:
OXY is backed by Buffett
DVN has dual exposure to oil and natural gas
Global tensions have made oil prices unstable
As much as I love lower prices at the pump, I don’t think oil and gas prices are going to drop much more anytime soon. These two companies give me exposure to the industry.
Big Picture
None of my positions are trendy or hype plays.
If the market drops tomorrow, I’m not overexposed to frothy valuations. And if we break out instead, these beaten-down names are in a position to recover faster than their overbought peers.
A recent Bank of America study, Gen Z: A New Economic Force, forecasts that Gen Z will earn $36 trillion over the next five years — and $74 trillion by 2040. If true, they’ll be the richest generation in history.
But that wealth is based on income — not savings — and that’s a critical difference.
Despite higher earnings, Gen Z is also reportedly spending twice as much as they have in savings. For now, their income is helping them keep up — but for how long?
As spending habits shift and services like Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) become more common, the long-term impact on the economy is hard to ignore. Still, the bigger concern isn’t what’s happening on a national scale — it’s if you recognize these habits in your own life.
With so many people falling into the cycle of high spending and low savings, what can you do differently to stay in control of your finances and build stability for the future?
Spending Isn’t Just About the Cost of Living
It’s easy to blame high spending on the rising cost of living. There’s truth to that, but it’s not the only cause.
Look closer, and you’ll see that much of the spending gap — especially among younger generations — comes down to choices:
$150–$225 shoes from brands like HOKA and On vs. sub-$100 options from Nike or competitors
Ordering meals through DoorDash or Uber Eats instead of picking it up yourself
Financing through BNPL as an alternative to saving
An occasional high-cost purchase isn’t the issue — and financing, in moderation, isn’t either. The real problem is what happens over time. These habits gradually widen the gap between income and savings, making it easier to grow comfortable with financial fragility.
The Wealth Effect Can Be Misleading
In economics, there’s a concept called the wealth effect — the tendency to spend more as income or assets increase. It creates a sense of financial freedom that feels real in the moment, but can collapse if the paychecks stop coming.
Real financial security doesn’t come from a steady paycheck — it comes from building assets that hold their value even if you lose your job:
Robust savings
A home
A paid-off car
Investment income
If your entire lifestyle depends on your income, you’re building a financial foundation on sand.
Discipline Is More Than Saying No
Financial discipline isn’t just about saying no to something you want. That’s a great start, but the next step is redirecting that money somewhere more meaningful.
Rather than letting extra cash sit in your checking account, consider putting it to work in a retirement or brokerage account, a high-yield emergency fund, or a separate fund for a major purchase.
At Break Out Money Guys, financial intentionality matters. In other words, don’t just practice restraint — spend with purpose.
How to Take Control of Your Finances
It’s easy to make these ideas sound good in theory — but how do you actually put them into practice?
1. Build a Budget
Before anything else, you need a budget. It doesn’t have to be complicated — just track your income, list your fixed expenses, and set clear goals for saving and investing. Build in a realistic category for flexible spending, like food and entertainment, so you don’t feel restricted.
The hardest part is simply getting started. But once you know where your money is coming from and where it’s going, staying on top of it becomes a lot easier.
2. Drop the Victim Mindset
There’s no shortage of commentary blaming other generations or politics for the state of the economy. Sure, the landscape has changed, but it doesn’t mean you’re out of options.
Waiting for the system to lend a hand won’t get you anywhere. Want to buy a house someday? It starts with small, intentional decisions right now.
3. Ditch the Hacks
Life hacks and financial tricks are everywhere — automatic savings, the envelope system, the latte rule. They can be helpful, but they’re just training wheels. The real goal is to reshape your mindset around money.
At some point, hacks won’t be enough. You’ll need long-term discipline — the kind that shows up when no one’s watching and spending is easy. That means learning to problem-solve on your own, not relying on trendy shortcuts.
True financial wisdom comes from choosing the harder road today to get to a better place tomorrow. It may not go viral — but it’s the kind of discipline that actually moves you forward.
What Warren Buffett Can Teach You About Wealth
Warren Buffett once said, “The biggest thing about making money is time. You don’t have to be particularly smart; you just have to be patient.”
Most of Buffett’s wealth came after he turned 50. He started investing at age 11, but it was decades of patience, discipline, and compounding that made him one of the richest people alive.
Take these principles seriously, and you’ll put yourself in a position most people — no matter their generation — never reach. Wealth isn’t built through tricks, hacks, or overnight wins. It’s built slowly, intentionally, and with a long view.
The sooner you start, the better.
If this article stirred a desire to take control of your spending, don’t ignore it. If you’d like to continue building a strong financial foundation, check out our podcast and explore our other financial wellness articles.
In last month’s update, I asked whether the market would recover quickly or continue to slide. As of writing, the S&P 500 has kept falling — down nearly 7% since that update and over 10% year-to-date.
Investors are uneasy about Trump’s tariffs — not just the policies, but how frequently they’re changing. China appears to be the primary target, and it’s been reported that the country won’t be backing down. Until we get some clarity or resolution, the market likely won’t post meaningful gains. If you’ve been investing for a while, you know markets hate uncertainty.
Worst Performers YTD: NKE, PYPL, and OXY
When evaluating my positions, these three companies have performed significantly worse than the market as a whole. Many investors flee from underperforming stocks — but I believe that’s where the value is.
Nike (NKE)
Nike is down almost 30% YTD after a poor earnings report in March and a bearish response to tariffs. There was a brief bounce on optimism around U.S.-Vietnam trade discussions, but the stock remains near multi-year lows — the same levels it traded at between 2015 and 2017.
PayPal (PYPL)
PayPal is also down close to 30% this year, and the stock has spent over three years consolidating between $58 and $117 per share. Currently around $61, the elevated volume during this consolidation signals accumulation by long-term investors.
If sentiment improves and the stock breaks out of this range, patient holders could be rewarded — but nothing is guaranteed. Key support at $58 and $51 has held up well, but a break below those levels would likely cause panic.
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
This Buffett-backed oil company has struggled in 2025, down over 20% YTD. It trades in the upper $30s — roughly where it was in early 2022.
Still, Buffett bought many of his shares in the upper $50s and Berkshire now owns nearly 30% of the company.
Oil stocks move differently than typical equities, and while OXY’s 2.42% dividend yield isn’t as high as DVN’s 4.12%, its long-term potential is attractive. That said, oil is clearly out of favor right now. I’m hesitant to add here.
New Position: TLT
Earlier this month, I opened a position in TLT (an ETF tracking long-term U.S. Treasuries) as a hedge. With hyper-inflated stocks and economic uncertainty building, this position helps balance my exposure if markets stagnate over the next few years.
With historic highs in the $170s, it now trades in the upper $80s, a levels not seen since the early 2000s. Volume is rapidly increasing and has been since the ETF’s decline post-Covid.
My thesis is that bonds have been largely abandoned as investors chase higher returns elsewhere. But if the cycle turns, I expect a rebalancing — with bonds regaining a meaningful position in portfolios again.
Upcoming Pick: RSP
I’m watching RSP — the equal-weight version of SPY — as my preferred method to buy the dip.
While RSP has historically outperformed SPY, the past five years have flipped that trend. That shift has come as the Magnificent 7 dominate headlines and portfolios become too concentrated in a small group of companies.
The red line is SPY
RSP gives broader exposure to undervalued sectors that could benefit from mean reversion. Like TLT, it fits my thesis: the market will eventually rotate away from momentum and reward those who got in early on value.
Other Stocks: INTC, PEP, and DVN
Intel, PepsiCo, and Devon Energy are all tracking close to the S&P — each down between 5% and 10% YTD. There’s nothing notable to call out at the moment, but the market moves fast. I’ll post updates if anything changes.
For the latest on my positioning, check out my page on X.
In this episode, we dive into the market volatility sparked by new tariffs and the so-called trade war as of April 8, 2025. From the S&P 500’s resilience to the potential revival of U.S. manufacturing, we talk about what’s driving the chaos and why long-term investors shouldn’t panic. Plus, we explore falling oil prices, consumer impacts, and how to stay grounded despite being bombarded by constant high-stress news.
Link to the companies discussed in the episode: Portfolio
(Disclaimer: We are not financial advisors. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Please consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.)
