In last month’s update, I asked whether the market would recover quickly or continue to slide. As of writing, the S&P 500 has kept falling — down nearly 7% since that update and over 10% year-to-date.
Investors are uneasy about Trump’s tariffs — not just the policies, but how frequently they’re changing. China appears to be the primary target, and it’s been reported that the country won’t be backing down. Until we get some clarity or resolution, the market likely won’t post meaningful gains. If you’ve been investing for a while, you know markets hate uncertainty.
Worst Performers YTD: NKE, PYPL, and OXY
When evaluating my positions, these three companies have performed significantly worse than the market as a whole. Many investors flee from underperforming stocks — but I believe that’s where the value is.
Nike (NKE)
Nike is down almost 30% YTD after a poor earnings report in March and a bearish response to tariffs. There was a brief bounce on optimism around U.S.-Vietnam trade discussions, but the stock remains near multi-year lows — the same levels it traded at between 2015 and 2017.
PayPal (PYPL)
PayPal is also down close to 30% this year, and the stock has spent over three years consolidating between $58 and $117 per share. Currently around $61, the elevated volume during this consolidation signals accumulation by long-term investors.
If sentiment improves and the stock breaks out of this range, patient holders could be rewarded — but nothing is guaranteed. Key support at $58 and $51 has held up well, but a break below those levels would likely cause panic.
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
This Buffett-backed oil company has struggled in 2025, down over 20% YTD. It trades in the upper $30s — roughly where it was in early 2022.
Still, Buffett bought many of his shares in the upper $50s and Berkshire now owns nearly 30% of the company.
Oil stocks move differently than typical equities, and while OXY’s 2.42% dividend yield isn’t as high as DVN’s 4.12%, its long-term potential is attractive. That said, oil is clearly out of favor right now. I’m hesitant to add here.
New Position: TLT
Earlier this month, I opened a position in TLT (an ETF tracking long-term U.S. Treasuries) as a hedge. With hyper-inflated stocks and economic uncertainty building, this position helps balance my exposure if markets stagnate over the next few years.
With historic highs in the $170s, it now trades in the upper $80s, a levels not seen since the early 2000s. Volume is rapidly increasing and has been since the ETF’s decline post-Covid.
My thesis is that bonds have been largely abandoned as investors chase higher returns elsewhere. But if the cycle turns, I expect a rebalancing — with bonds regaining a meaningful position in portfolios again.
Upcoming Pick: RSP
I’m watching RSP — the equal-weight version of SPY — as my preferred method to buy the dip.
While RSP has historically outperformed SPY, the past five years have flipped that trend. That shift has come as the Magnificent 7 dominate headlines and portfolios become too concentrated in a small group of companies.
The red line is SPY
RSP gives broader exposure to undervalued sectors that could benefit from mean reversion. Like TLT, it fits my thesis: the market will eventually rotate away from momentum and reward those who got in early on value.
Other Stocks: INTC, PEP, and DVN
Intel, PepsiCo, and Devon Energy are all tracking close to the S&P — each down between 5% and 10% YTD. There’s nothing notable to call out at the moment, but the market moves fast. I’ll post updates if anything changes.
For the latest on my positioning, check out my page on X.