Upcoming Market Events

• FOMC Minutes – The Fed’s detailed record of its latest policy meeting at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, August 20.
• Jackson Hole Symposium – Press conference from Jerome Powell at 10 a.m. ET on Friday, August 22.
• Nvidia Earnings – After the bell on Wednesday, August 27.

S&P 500 Technical Levels

• Support: 6410, then 6300
• Resistance: ~6500

S&P 500 Forecast

The S&P is holding above its upper trend line — a bullish sign — but daily MFI on SPY has slipped below 50. Momentum looks slow above the upper line of the channel.

This has been the case of the last couple of years. Technical signals have often failed to mark clear entry and exit points. Some analysts blame inflation’s distortions, while others point to the outsized influence of mega caps like NVDA, META, and AAPL. It could be a combination of both or even investor fears growing under the surface.

For now, the trend remains intact as long as the S&P holds 6000. Still, it seems investors are hesitant to rotate into less-popular names. Consequently, short-term strength appears concentrated in a few market leaders.

If fear continues to fade, we expect the best opportunities to come from a “snap-back” in laggards — many of which sit in our portfolio. We’ll keep watching for those setups.

In the meantime, check out our portfolio page for more information. Intel, Nike, and PepsiCo have performed particularly well over the last few weeks.