Category: Stories

  • Buy Now, Pain Later

    Buy Now, Pain Later

    Roughly 60% of Coachella general admission ticket buyers chose to finance their passes through a payment plan — up from just 18% in 2009. That’s a troubling statistic — and it’s not just music festivals.

    DoorDash and Uber Eats recently made headlines offering new payment plans for takeout. Yes, people are financing fast food.

    Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) has become a modern way to buy something you can’t currently afford. But the convenience it offers comes with long-term consequences for how we think about money, spending, and debt.

    A Brief History of BNPL

    BNPL isn’t new. It began as layaway and has its roots in the early 1900s. Shoppers would put a down payment on a large purchase and make smaller payments while the store held onto it. Once the balance was paid in full, they could take it home.

    These programs grew in popularity during and after the Great Depression when people didn’t have disposable income for large purchases. They were more akin to “pay now, buy later.”

    What You Can BNPL Today

    Today, the opposite is happening. Consumers get the product now and worry about payments later — even for small transactions. These programs may offer flexibility, but they thrive on instant gratification.

    BNPL has found its way into nearly every industry: flights and hotels, clothing, groceries, video games, electronics, gym equipment, and even fast food. It’s now common to split up the cost of a new TV for Christmas, finance a computer or weight machine for your home office, or break up the cost of a Chipotle burrito after class.

    This shift especially appeals to younger generations and low-income buyers, many of whom are more likely to feel financial pressure.

    What’s Fueling BNPL Growth?

    BNPL’s explosive growth comes down to two major forces: rising consumer debt and strategic business incentives.

    Consumer Debt

    Revolving Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized – FRED

    Revolving credit — primarily credit card balances — has seen a sharp uptick, especially post-Covid. Consumers are carrying more debt than ever, and BNPL debt isn’t even counted in this data. That means total debt levels may be much higher than they appear.

    As consumers become more comfortable taking on debt, BNPL is there to capitalize.

    Business Incentives

    Firms like Klarna, Affirm, and Afterpay are not offering buy now, pay later out of kindness. They are leveraging buyer psychology to drive sales. According to Klarna, using its service leads to a 23% increase in average order value, a 20% boost in conversion rates, and a 46% increase in purchase frequency.

    These services exist to help businesses sell more. And because BNPL helps generate more revenue, businesses are going to continue taking advantage.

    Risks of BNPL

    Before making a purchase with BNPL, it’s important to consider the risks — many of which are listed directly on provider websites.

    First, BNPL encourages impulse spending. Many consumers make purchases they would not consider if full payment were required upfront. The ability to delay spending increases the likelihood of buying things that strain their budgets.

    Second, some plans come with hidden fees or deferred interest clauses. Retailers often advertise no-interest financing, but missing a payment or misreading the fine print can result in retroactive charges.

    Third, BNPL fosters a false sense of financial freedom. Small recurring payments make spending feel painless, but it’s an illusion that disappears when multiple purchases convolute your budget.

    Benefits of BNPL

    BNPL is often marketed with several practical advantages, particularly for purchasers with limited access to traditional credit. For individuals with lower credit scores, BNPL can make larger purchases more attainable. And because payments are spread over time, they appear more manageable.

    In some cases, deferring payment allows purchasers to keep cash on hand. For the financially savvy, that cash could be placed in a high-yield savings account or invested elsewhere, generating returns in the meantime.

    Still, these benefits are only meaningful when BNPL is used responsibly. It is not a replacement for budgeting or saving. The most optimistic use cases come from consumers who are already in strong financial health.

    Financial Flexibility or Folly?

    In a world where almost everything can be financed, it’s worth asking a simple but uncomfortable question: how much are you already paying off?

    Consider your current obligations:

    • Subscriptions
    • Streaming services
    • Credit cards
    • Deferred purchases

    BNPL may feel like a frictionless way to buy now and sort it out later, but that ease is what makes it dangerous. Friction gives us a moment to pause, to question, and to weigh whether the cost is truly worth it.

    Our mission is to challenge conventional financial thinking and equip you with the tools to make wise, tested decisions. We’re not here to sell you shortcuts — we’re here to give you clarity, discipline, and conviction. For more resources on managing money in today’s economy, check out our podcast and other stories.

  • Q1 in Review: What’s next for 2025

    Q1 in Review: What’s next for 2025

    The market has struggled since the start of the year, caught in a downtrend after making new highs in February. Investors are anxious, economic signals are mixed, and markets seem unsure of where the economy is headed. As of this briefing, the S&P 500 is down roughly 10% after bouncing off bear market territory just a few days ago.

    Euphoria has clearly soured. The CNN Fear & Greed Index now sits in “Extreme Fear” territory — a stark contrast from the enthusiasm that fueled 2024’s AI-driven rally. Caution is back in the market.

    Much of this volatility is global trade-related, specifically around Trump’s new tariffs. Their true impact is still uncertain, making investors nervous. While a quick recovery could reignite optimism, the best buying opportunities aren’t during initial rebounds; they’ve come when fear has driven the masses out of the market.

    U.S. and China: Tariffs and Trade Wars

    America is staring down a potential trade war as new tariffs from both the U.S. and China escalate tensions. While Trump’s push to bring manufacturing home sounds straightforward, supply chains don’t shift overnight.

    It’s an important note that other nations — especially those with less hostility toward the U.S. — could step into roles China previously dominated. Whether that actually unfolds is unclear, but investors should pay close attention to how global supply chains respond in the coming months.

    The Fed Balancing Act Continues

    Since Trump took office, the Federal Reserve seems to have disappeared from headlines. However, the central bank is still walking a fine line. Inflation has cooled from its peak but hasn’t gone away.

    The market is currently pricing in two to three rate cuts in 2025, with the first cut in June according to the CME FedWatch tool.

    Employment and Economic Health

    Unemployment edged up to 4.2% in March and is still trending in the wrong direction. Trump’s policies aim to address this by bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. — a process known as “reshoring.”

    Whether these policies can meaningfully offset lagging wage growth is yet to be seen. One key area to watch is new domestic investment, such as Eli Lilly’s new foundry in Lebanon, Indiana.

    Identifying Real Value

    Even after recent dips, the S&P 500 remains up over 100% in the past five years. We’re still very close to all-time highs.

    Today’s market looks to be at a tipping point. High-performing sectors — particularly tech — could remain stagnant longer than many expect. That doesn’t necessarily signal the end of the bull run — just a pivot from momentum chasing to purposeful investing.

    Our opinion is that in 2025, true opportunities will be found in overlooked and undervalued companies. Stick with long-term investing rooted in careful analysis, realistic valuations, and patience, no matter how chaotic the headlines become.

    Looking for more?

    For further discussion and perspectives, check out our podcast or visit the portfolio section for ongoing updates.

  • S1E06 – Bitcoin: Hype, Hope or Hazard?

    S1E06 – Bitcoin: Hype, Hope or Hazard?

    In this episode, David and Mason dive into the Bitcoin craze and discuss whether the famous cryptocurrency is the savior of the economy that so many say it is or whether it’s really just a risky gamble. From its cult-like following to comparisons with gold, we unpack the hype, the volatility, and the real risks.

    Is it a smart investment, a recipe for disaster, or something in between? Tune in for our thoughts on Bitcoin.

    (Disclaimer: We are not financial advisors. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Please consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.)

  • S1E05 – Dips, Dreams, and Dollars: Investing Through the Noise

    S1E05 – Dips, Dreams, and Dollars: Investing Through the Noise

    David and Mason dive into the S&P 500’s 6% dip in 2025, unpacking why long-term investing beats panic-selling and how market crashes can be buying opportunities. From recession fears to a wild theory about erasing post-2008 gains, they explore how money ties to mindset. PLUS, why intentional living (and backyard eggs) might outshine city chaos. Bitcoin’s up next time!

    (Disclaimer: We are not financial advisors. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Please consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.)

  • S1E04 – Intentional Investing: Tech, AI, and Your Money

    S1E04 – Intentional Investing: Tech, AI, and Your Money

    David and Mason are back after a break, riffing on intentionality in finance and tech. From the S&P 500’s dip (possible buying opportunity?) to Apple’s AI lag, they explore how to navigate today’s market.

    Plus, why AI’s a game-changer you can’t ignore and how online content could be your next income stream. Timeless advice: invest regularly, tune out the noise, and start now whether you’re 18 or 50.

    (Disclaimer: We are not financial advisors. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Please consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.)

  • Position Update: Mid-March

    Position Update: Mid-March

    The S&P 500 is down 7.36% since my last update on February 14th. While this didn’t catch me by surprise, investors are spooked due to fresh concerns surrounding President Trump’s tariffs, potential trade wars, and ongoing political volatility.

    While economic policies are sure to impact future stock performance, this correction was overdue. Keep in mind, the S&P 500 is up over 40% in just two short years — well above its historical average of about 10% annually.

    What’s Next: Relief or Recession?

    The current question is whether this correction is nearing its end or if a deeper bear market and recession are on their way. Given the extremely high valuations post-Covid, a value reversion is highly likely. To protect my capital, I’ve accumulated shares in several companies that appear deeply undervalued in the current market.

    For more details of each company and my investment thesis, I encourage a review of my mid-February and mid-January market briefings.

    Current Portfolio Performance

    Closed Positions

    Not every pick works out, and some of my selections haven’t performed as expected. Due to weak technicals or negative investor sentiment, I’ve chosen to exit a couple of positions.

    AMD

    I initially thought AMD would soak up capital from Nvidia investors searching for more value. Unfortunately, AMD showed signs of potentially breaking down from its falling wedge pattern — depending on your technical perspective — which forced me to close my position.

    AMD is still a strong competitor in the semiconductor space, and I’ll continue monitoring it closely. If the stock is able to reclaims the $127-$128 level, I may consider adding it back into my portfolio.

    Walgreens

    Walgreens recently confirmed a buyout offer from private equity firm Sycamore Partners at $11.45 per share. Following the news, WBA shares briefly touched this price level, where I sold my entire position.

    Shareholders who hold through the buyout process might receive an additional $3 per share from the sale of subsequent assets, but I decided it wasn’t worth the wait.

  • S1E03 – Emergency Funds & Planning for the Unexpected

    S1E03 – Emergency Funds & Planning for the Unexpected

    An emergency fund isn’t just a safety net—it’s a key part of financial security. In this episode, we cover how to build one from zero, where to keep it, and how to balance saving with investing.

    We also dive into overlooked insurance needs, planning for big expenses, and even DIY skills that can save you money. Whether you’re starting fresh or wondering if you’re saving too much, we’ll help you prepare for life’s surprises.

    (Disclaimer: We are not financial advisors. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Please consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.)

  • S1E02 – Retirement at Every Age

    S1E02 – Retirement at Every Age

    No matter your age, it’s never too early (or too late) to plan for retirement.

    We break down smart money moves for every stage of life: early career (18–29), mid-career (30–40), late starters (50+), and those nearing retirement (60+). Whether you’re just starting, catching up, or planning your next steps, we’ve got practical advice to help you build a secure future.

    Disclaimer: We are not financial advisors. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Please consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.

  • What is the Federal Reserve?

    What is the Federal Reserve?

    The Federal Reserve isn’t just America’s central bank — it drives market moves that create opportunities for those paying attention. Following Fed headlines is common, but do you know why it makes certain decisions? Understanding how its mechanisms work can give you a significant advantage in positioning your portfolio.

    Understanding the Fed’s Dual Mandate

    The Fed’s dual mandate focuses on two key goals: keeping inflation around 2% and achieving maximum employment. These objectives directly influence asset prices and economic conditions.

    Hot inflation

    When inflation runs higher than anticipated, the Fed raises interest rates to cool spending. This higher cost of borrowing affects the market in observable ways:

    • Growth stocks often struggle because higher rates make borrowing more expensive, which limits their ability to invest and grow.
    • Financial sector stocks benefit because higher interest rates boost profits.
    • Consumer discretionary stocks struggle as rising prices reduce consumers’ ability to spend on non-essentials.
    • Energy stocks benefit as commodity prices soar.

    Exception: Companies with strong pricing power can maintain profitability by passing costs to consumers without losing demand.

    Rising unemployment

    When employment weakens, the Fed lowers interest rates to stimulate growth. This creates a different set of opportunities:

    • Bond prices rise when yields fall because older bonds with higher payouts are more valuable.
    • Real estate investments do well as lower rates reduce borrowing costs for buying or developing properties.
    • Growth stocks perform better because low rates make borrowing cheaper for expansion.

    Exception: Companies dependent on consumer spending may struggle if unemployment remains high, regardless of rates.

    How the Fed Manages Market Liquidity: RRP

    The Reverse Repo Program (RRP) is a tool that the Fed uses to manage the supply of cash in the financial system. It allows financial institutions to lend surplus cash to the Fed in exchange for Treasury securities, helping control market liquidity.

    Excess Cash

    When there is too much cash in the system, the Fed uses the RRP to absorb it. Financial institutions park their extra cash with the Fed in exchange for Treasury securities, providing a safe return while reducing market speculation. This prevents overheating in financial markets that could otherwise inflate risky assets.

    Tight Liquidity

    When liquidity tightens, the Fed reduces RRP activity to increase cash flow into financial markets. Lower RRP rates encourage financial institutions to invest funds elsewhere. This increased cash flow can stabilize markets, but uncertainty often leads investors toward safe-haven assets.

    Investment Strategies for Different Liquidity Environments

    Understanding dynamic liquidity creates clear opportunities:

    • Monitor RRP levels for shifts in liquidity conditions.
    • Focus on cash-rich companies during tight periods.
    • Consider safe-haven assets for portfolio stability when uncertainty rises.

    How to Trade Around Fed Policy

    Watch liquidity, interest rates, and market trends to find opportunities and manage risks.

    Reading Liquidity Signals

    Monitor liquidity through RRP levels and bank reserves — higher RRP usage signals tighter conditions that can reduce lending and investment.

    Understanding Yield Curve Indicators

    Watch the yield curve for economic signals; steepening suggests growth optimism while inversion warns of potential slowdowns.

    Sector-Specific Trading Strategies

    Different sectors respond uniquely to policy shifts. Rising rates tend to benefit financials through wider lending margins, while growth sectors face headwinds from higher borrowing costs. However, financial markets are nuanced and it’s not always a one-size-fits-all. Understanding these relationships helps position portfolios for opportunities while managing risks.

  • Position Update: Mid-February

    Position Update: Mid-February

    The S&P 500 is on track to reach new all-time highs this month, despite growing concerns over Trump’s tariffs and trade wars. Rather than chasing stocks at extreme valuations, I believe there are still value opportunities for those willing to look.

    Here are some of the positions I find most compelling for the remainder of the year.

    New Positions

    SIRI

    Backed by Warren Buffett, Sirius XM maintains strong fundamentals despite slowing subscriber growth. It also operates as a legal monopoly as the only licensed satellite radio provider.

    For a deeper look at its fundamentals and why Buffett keeps buying it, check out the analysis here.

    Current Positions and Updates

    1. NKE

    Year-to-Date Performance: -0.46 (-0.62%)
    Support: $70–$71
    Value: A consumer discretionary stock; a recovering consumer market will positively impact revenue.

    2. BA

    Year-to-Date Performance: +13.77 (8.01%)
    Support: $148, $118
    Value: Benefiting from increased travel demand and a strong market position with little competition.

    3. AMD

    Year-to-Date Performance: -7.18 (-5.96%)
    Support: N/A
    Value: Potentially undervalued as investors currently favor Nvidia; strong product lineup.

    4. PYPL

    Year-to-Date Performance: -9.22 (-10.70%)
    Support: $67–$68, $57–$58
    Value: Dominates market share in e-commerce and mobile payments; expanding into new countries; consistently innovating.

    5. OXY

    Year-to-Date Performance: -1.19 (-2.39%)
    Support: N/A
    Value: Generates consistent cash flow; backed by Warren Buffett; positioned as an energy play.

    6. DVN

    Year-to-Date Performance: +1.35 (4.04%)
    Support: N/A
    Value: Offers a high dividend and strong cash flow; focused on crude oil and natural gas production.

    7. WBA

    Year-to-Date Performance: +0.56 (6.09%)
    Support: N/A
    Value: Increasing trading volume as it recovers from oversold levels.

    8. INTC

    Year-to-Date Performance: +0.49 (2.01%)
    Support: $18–$19
    Value: Currently out of favor compared to AMD and Nvidia; potential growth in manufacturing for external clients (Intel Foundry Services).

  • SIRI – Sirius XM Profile

    SIRI – Sirius XM Profile

    This historical chart for Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) includes data spanning back to the company’s earlier iterations, adjusted for corporate actions such as mergers, acquisitions, and stock splits. In September 2024, Sirius XM underwent a corporate restructuring which may affect price continuity when comparing data across different platforms.

    Revenue

    Despite a slight revenue decline in 2024 to $8.7 billion—largely due to weaker promotional revenue from automakers and declining ad sales—the company’s strong free cash flow and subscription-based model is attractive to long-term investors like Buffett. (Sirius XM Investor Relations)

    Subscriber base

    Sirius XM had over 33 million subscribers as of Q3 2024, a slight decline from 33.97 million the previous year. (Statista)

    While the subscriber base is stable, it seems to be slowing, particularly among younger audiences who prefer streaming alternatives.

    Dividend

    Siri pays a relatively high dividend, a current yield of approximately 4.17%. (Nasdaq)

    The most recent ex-dividend date was February 7, 2025, with a dividend payment of $0.27 per share scheduled for February 25, 2025.

    Warren Buffett’s investment

    Berkshire Hathaway continues to increase its stake in Sirius XM. As of early February 2025, Berkshire acquired an additional 2.3 million shares at an average price of $23.38, bringing its total holdings to over 119.78 million shares — a 35% stake in the company. (MarketWatch)

    Sirius XM is Berkshire’s 16th largest holding and represents about 1% of Berkshire’s portfolio.

    Why does Buffett continue buying SIRI?

    Buffett adding to his current position suggests he has confidence in the company’s business model and future prospects. The consistent free cash flow and stable subscriber base align with Buffett’s typical criteria.

    Pandora acquisition

    In 2019, Sirius XM finalized its acquisition of Pandora. (Sirius XM Investor Relations)

    The streaming service now contributes about 25% of total revenue, though it faces strong competition from Spotify and Apple Music.

  • How X (Formerly Twitter) Is Reshaping Social Media

    How X (Formerly Twitter) Is Reshaping Social Media

    X has undergone a radical transformation since Elon Musk’s acquisition in 2022. While the takeover sparked controversy — from content moderation to its controversial blue checkmark subscription — the platform is shaping up to be so much more than it once was.

    From shallow tidbits to meaningful discourse

    For years, Twitter felt like a niche networking site that never fully broke into the mainstream in the way Facebook or Instagram did. It was primarily a tool for journalists, politicians, and celebrities to post bite-sized commentary without any depth. Now, under Musk’s leadership, X has evolved into a real-time information hub where news is not just reported but actively critiqued, verified, or debunked by the masses.

    Yes, controversial content still exists, since human nature ensures there will always be troublemakers who take advantage of an open platform. However, X also facilitates meaningful discourse and intellectual exchange in ways that social media has never seen.

    On my feed, I see Christian leaders, literature enthusiasts, financial analysts, artists, tech innovators, and startups — a range of perspectives that would have been difficult to curate elsewhere. It truly is becoming a digital town square.

    The blue checkmark: A new kind of creator

    The introduction of the blue checkmark as a paid subscription was initially seen as a desperate attempt to offset ad losses. Now, its long-term value is becoming more clear. The platform is positioning itself as a next-gen creator economy that empowers a broader range of voices to monetize their work.

    Here are some examples:

    • Classical Literature Accounts: Literature enthusiasts have leveraged the platform’s subscription service to host premium book clubs and discussion groups. Instead of relying on traditional publishing or blogs, these creators engage directly with an audience willing to support them.
    • Stock Market Analysts and Investors: Financial analysts have found a space to monetize their research and real-time insights.
    • Writers and Educators: Skilled writers now offer premium discussion groups focused on improving writing techniques, providing direct access to mentorship that would typically require workshops or formal education.

    Many other niche communities are emerging, centered around crafts, hobbies, and specialized knowledge sharing. This evolving market allows social media to support content creators beyond the traditional ad-revenue model.

    To be clear, making a living as a content creator on X is still difficult. However, if the platform continues its current direction, it will empower more individuals with valuable information to share.

    A counterbalance to influencer culture

    While most social media rewards clickbait and viral moments, X is on its way to becoming something different. From literary critics hosting book clubs to financial analysts sharing market insights, the platform is elevating people who have real knowledge to share — and helping them earn from it.

    X may not be for everyone, and its future is uncertain, but one thing is clear — it’s already become much more than it once was. It has turned into a place where valuable information finds an audience, creators can build sustainable businesses, and meaningful discourse thrives.

  • Best Buy Quietly Discontinues Upgrade Plus: What Happened?

    Best Buy Quietly Discontinues Upgrade Plus: What Happened?

    Best Buy’s Upgrade Plus program is gone. No announcement, no warning — just quietly removed. If you were hoping to upgrade your Apple device under the plan, you’re out of luck.

    What was Best Buy’s Upgrade Plus program?

    Upgrade Plus launched in 2022 as a way to finance Apple tech over three years. It started with MacBooks, but eventually included iPads, Apple Watches, and desktop Macs. The program offered a low monthly payment with a balloon payment in month 37, which could be handled in three ways:

    1. Return the device and upgrade to a new model under a fresh three-year plan.
    2. Return the device and exit the program entirely.
    3. Pay the balloon payment and keep the device.

    If you chose to return the Mac, Best Buy covered the final payment, making upgrades seamless. You could also exit the program at any point but paying off your full balance. In theory, it was a great deal — but the program didn’t even last long enough for a single upgrade.

    Best Buy has quietly killed Upgrade Plus

    Now, Upgrade Plus is no longer available. Best Buy has removed all references to the program from its website, and it isn’t an option at checkout anymore. There’s been no official announcement, leaving customers wondering what happened.

    The only official response has come from Citizens Pay, the program’s financing partner. In an email, they confirmed that customers must continue making payments and remain responsible for the balloon payment at the end of the term. The associated line of credit has been closed, preventing any new purchases. However, it remains unclear whether Best Buy will still honor the Upgrade Plus trade-in policy to waive the final payment.

    Why did Best Buy shut down Upgrade Plus?

    While Best Buy hasn’t publicly addressed the shutdown, the most likely reasons include:

    • Low adoption: If not enough people signed up, it wouldn’t make sense to continue the program.
    • Low profitability: Covering final payments for returned devices may have proven too costly.

    Online discussion about the program is limited, and there appears to be some confusion about how it actually worked. In response to a Reddit user’s question, some commenters dismissed the program as a waste of money for participants.

    While the program implied 0% interest, it’s unclear if every customer who qualified received that rate. Those who did effectively divided a large upfront cost into 36 smaller monthly payments, with a larger payment at the end to keep the device.

    What does this mean for Best Buy’s future?

    The discontinuation of Upgrade Plus isn’t just about a failed program — it’s a red flag for Best Buy’s future.

    The company has struggled to adapt to the adoption of eCommerce. While its stock price has remained stable, its revenue has been declining since 2022. The company got a temporary boost from the pandemic, but now it faces a lack of differentiation. Upgrade Plus was one of the few incentives encouraging customers to buy Apple products from Best Buy instead of more direct or convenient alternatives.

    Without a clear strategy to set itself apart, Best Buy risks following the path of Blockbuster — a once-dominant retailer that failed to adapt before it was too late.

  • Position Update: Mid-January

    Position Update: Mid-January

    Crypto is surging, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are reaching all-time highs, seemingly unfazed by high interest rates. At the same time, investors are rushing to position themselves in the age of AI, scrambling to find value in this dynamic market.

    I see two narratives dominating right now: one insists that failing to invest now means missing out on massive opportunities, while the other warns that the market is severely overvalued and at risk of unraveling. The challenge we face is finding a way to invest wisely amidst the fear and volatility.

    Here are eight stocks I think are worth keeping an eye on. These could benefit if speculation broadens, while their lower valuations might help them hold up better in a selloff.

    Key Positions and Outlook

    1. NKE

    Nike is a top consumer discretionary stock that could benefit if the consumer recovers. The company remains far ahead of competitors in revenue, but its growth is likely to get worse before getting better.

    • Facing rising competition from trendy names like On, HOKA, and New Balance, which are capitalizing on current consumer preferences.
    • Revenue is stagnating but has still grown since Covid.

    2. AMD

    AMD is facing pressure as NVDA continues to dominate the AI and semiconductor space. After a year long downtrend, the stock is bouncing off its 200-week moving average and appears oversold based on the weekly MFI.

    • Could benefit if capital flows from NVDA to seek value.
    • Growth potential remains strong.

    3. WBA

    Walgreens has been severely beaten down as other companies eat into its market share. However, there’s been unusually high volume since 2024. This is reminiscent of accumulation patterns from 2008–2012, but on a much larger scale, suggesting a potential trend change.

    • Oversold weekly MFI indicates the stock could be near a bottom.
    • Currently valued below its asset value (price-to-book ratio).

    4. KRE (short position)

    The regional banking ETF saw a large jump on Trump’s win back in November, but has since weakened. This makes it an appealing short position as higher interest rates and decreasing demand for mortgages may weigh on the sector.

    • Regional banks are typically more exposed to market volatility than larger, national banks.

    5. BA

    Boeing is currently trading near 2017 levels. With monthly support around $150/share, the stock is becoming attractive.

    • Long-term growth depends on a recovery in aviation demand and production.
    • Holds a dominant position in the aerospace industry, where competition is limited.

    6. PEP

    PepsiCo is a leading consumer staple and a safe-haven in volatile markets. I’m a buyer between $140–$130 per share or lower. 

    • Reliable revenue streams.
    • Offers a hedge against my bearishness if the consumer strengthens.

    7. OXY

    Occidental Petroleum is a major player in the energy sector, currently holding monthly support around $48/share. It recently broke out of its downtrend, making it worth a look.

    • Strong cash flow potential if energy prices stabilize or rise.
    • Berkshire Hathaway’s sixth-largest holding.
    • Needs to see a sustained uptrend after months of selling off.

    8. INTC

    Intel has struggled recently, facing profitability issues and a lack of good news. However, the company offers a potential value play if it can shift sentiment in its favor, even with a slight improvement.

    • Long-term business with strong infrastructure.
    • Potential to shift into manufacturing chips for other companies rather than being reliant on innovating.
    • Opportunity to accumulate while the stock stays out of the spotlight.

    Other Positions

    • DVN: Similar setup to OXY, with strong monthly support.
    • TQQQ and SPY: Short positions to profit if valuations drop. Extremely cautious position.
    • PYPL: Strong market position in eCommerce despite a lack of attention recently.

    The market is undeniably bullish, but it’s worth wondering if some of that optimism is running ahead of reality. There’s no way to know exactly how things will play out, but I believe that now is a time to be cautious. An unbelievable amount of growth has occurred in just the last year and it doesn’t seem like it would take much to unwind it.

  • New Year, New Market: January 2025 Outlook

    New Year, New Market: January 2025 Outlook

    As we kick off the new year, it’s a good time to step back and assess where we might be headed. In the face of fear and uncertainty, the market in 2024 experienced very little volatility. Every sell-off was met with fierce buying, driving most of the major indices past analysts’ price targets. Near all-time highs, will the market keep its momentum or reverse? Here’s what I’m interested in as we begin the new year.

    S&P 500: Where we stand and where we’re heading


    Year-end sentiment was divided between optimistic and cautious. The S&P 500 soared over 20% in 2024, but some fear that the market is overpriced and concentrated. Market breadth improved a little bit, but tech stocks accounted for 60% of the index’s gain since 2022. This type of concentration can make the market more susceptible to risks — of which there are many.

    Key concerns:

    • Inflation: Both CPI and PCE continue to outpace real wage increases for many Americans. Consumer spending appears to be increasingly reliant on credit and buy-now-pay-later programs to compensate.
    • Energy prices: Gas is still significantly higher than it was pre-pandemic. Additionally, the price of electricity has increased dramatically in the last few years and shows little sign of stabilizing.
    • Mortgage rates: Despite Federal Reserve cuts, rates have risen and continue to put pressures on demand and sales.
    • Unemployment: Currently at 4.2%, rising unemployment may signal an emerging slowdown, especially given historical patterns of unemployment spikes.

    Despite these concerns, the market remains elevated. Even with CNBC’s investor sentiment teetering between fear and extreme fear, the S&P 500 is still up 43% since November 2023. This data is accessible to all, so why is the market continuing to rally? Here are two potential possibilities.

    1. Inflation and the “Great Melt-Up”

    The market’s resilience may be explained through “The Great Melt-Up,” a concept attributed to ClearValue Tax in his video titled “The Great Melt-Up Will Strike The USA: My Advice to You.”

    He explains how inflation has driven investors to chase assets that keep up, creating a feedback loop of rising prices attracting more capital. He also argues that the U.S. Government may be using inflation to reduce its debt burden. If so, asset prices could keep rising until the system breaks.

    In this situation, it’s better to stay invested — even at high valuations — to protect your finances from inflation.

    2. U.S. tech and the global economy

    The U.S. market’s strength in AI and tech has attracted global capital, especially as other economies falter. Europe faces slow growth, energy challenges, and other inefficiencies. Likewise, China is suffering from economic instability and a weak property market. This dynamic, in light of U.S. strength, creates more market enthusiasm despite systemic risks.

    Warren Buffett’s 2008 op-ed “Buy American. I Am.” reminds us that U.S. stocks have a unique predisposition to endure hardships. It’s a perspective worth considering — especially if you’re bearish like me.

    Portfolio updates

    Heading into 2025, here are some of my picks regardless of the market’s direction. They are both undervalued enough to weather a sell-off and ready to benefit from improving market breadth.

    OXY (Occidental Petroleum):

    • Tailwinds: Crude futures are on the rise after consolidating for the last few months. Occidental should see some relief from the rally.
    • Buffett’s backing: Berkshire Hathaway’s continued investment in OXY adds confidence, signaling strong fundamentals and potential long-term upside.

    WBA (Walgreens Boots Alliance):

    • Reversal watch: The unusually high trading volume at historically low valuations, coupled with a stabilizing price, suggests we may be at or near a short-term bottom.
    • Buyout potential: Walgreens is in the process of cutting costs and discussing a private equity buyout with Sycamore Partners.
    • Decreasing market share: Amazon’s growing market share in pharmaceuticals is chipping away at profits for Walgreens and its competitors.

    INTC (Intel):

    • Valuation appeal: Investor sentiment is at extreme lows, and a floor may be forming. Intel offers a viable long-term play for those confident in the company’s ability to become profitable again.
    • Foundry concerns: Intel’s foundry services remain uncertain, and the company doesn’t appear confident in the profitability of its manufacturing efforts. This is disappointing, as my optimism for Intel’s future is contingent on a full pivot to manufacturing. This will likely lead to more volatility ahead.

    BA (Boeing):

    • Strong demand zone: There seems to be a strong demand zone between $120 and $150. With the stock currently trading at $170, it’s still relatively attractive.
    • Increased flying: Air travel is increasing, suggesting more demand for airplane manufacturing.

    PYPL (PayPal):

    • Opportunity in Innovation: PayPal maintains a dominant position in eCommerce while continuing to innovate. With sustained demand for digital payment solutions and the stock trading at 2019 levels, the current price looks like a bargain.
    • Honey controversy: Honey, a subsidiary of PayPal, recently faced a scandal involving content creators. While the market response has been muted, the company could be at risk of future lawsuits.

    Keep an eye out

    Looking ahead, several key themes could shape the year:

    • Interest rates: The market has been pricing in very soft (dovish) monetary policy. Any unexpected shift could trigger a spike in volatility. Stay prepared for surprises.
    • Tech vs. value: Last year was all about tech, but value stocks may offer better performance if market fears resolve. Watch underperforming sectors closely to gauge whether market breadth is improving.
    • Credit delinquencies, auto loans, and mortgages: Despite claims of a strong consumer, rising delinquencies on auto loans and credit cards tell a different story. Slowing demand for homes and cars further suggests the consumer may be weaker than previously thought.

    Final thoughts

    January offers a chance to recalibrate. Cut through the noise and focus on thoughtful, in-depth market analysis. Stay disciplined, stay curious, and prioritize the process over short-term wins.

    Here’s to a successful start to 2025!