Upcoming Market Events
FOMC – July Rate Decision
- Rate Decision – Wednesday, July 30 at 2:00 p.m. ET
- FedWatch: 96.9% expect no change
S&P 500 Technical Levels
- Support: 6300, then 6090
- Resistance: 6400
S&P 500 Forecast
In last Sunday’s briefing, I mentioned that the breakout momentum felt sluggish — but Wednesday showed real strength. Bullish momentum is picking up, just as the S&P approaches resistance at 6400.
A friend shared a chart on StockTwits showing a monthly bull channel dating back to 2016. Right now, the index is pressing against the top of that channel. I highly suggest taking a look at his post for added context.
If his thesis plays out, the S&P could pull back 10–20% and still remain in its long-term uptrend. That kind of move would cause fear, but technically, it could be healthy. We don’t trade off one person’s chart, but it’s worth considering.
FOMC July Rate Decision
The market’s latest push higher could be a preemptive move for the upcoming FOMC meeting. The decision is scheduled for Wednesday at 2 p.m., and investors overwhelmingly expect no change. Whether this is one push higher before a downturn or front-running a breakout is yet to be seen.
Even if rates stay the same, Powell’s comments on the path ahead, and how soon cuts might come, will almost certainly cause volatility. Keep an eye on the S&P on Wednesday — particularly in how it closes — for indication of future direction.
President Trump continues to pressure Powell for lower rates, even floating the idea of replacing him if he doesn’t deliver. That kind of uncertainty could quickly inject fear back into the market, and may work its way into Powell’s conference following the rate decision.