Break Out Money Guys

July 30, 2025 — S&P 500 Forecast

Upcoming Market Events

  • Core PCE & Jobless Claims: Thursday, July 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET
  • July Nonfarm Payrolls: Friday, August 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET

S&P 500 Technical Levels

Note that the S&P is still at the upper range of its bull channel.
  • Support: 6300, then 6090
  • Resistance: 6400

S&P 500 Forecast

The Fed held rates steady today as expected. While the market initially reacted poorly to Powell’s conference, it recovered completely into the close.

Most stocks finished the day lower, but Microsoft and Meta rallied on earnings. Nvidia stayed green as well, still moving higher tonight. This narrow leadership has been in place for a while, but it’s getting harder to ignore. When these few giants eventually fall out of favor, the S&P will have a harder time standing on its own.

PCE is tomorrow and payrolls on Friday, so we expect more volatility. If inflation cools and job growth eases, the market could finally get the rate‑cut signal it’s been waiting for. If not, Powell’s “wait and see” could turn into “wait even longer,” and we’ll see how much patience investors really have.

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