The market looks to be topping out with the potential for one more big move (if it ends up coming to fruition). Some of the poor performers are starting to get some buyers, but it’s not enough to coincide with another broad-market rally.

Laggards: PayPal and Intel

For example, I’ve been looking into PayPal (PYPL) and Intel (INTC) for the last week or so. I truly think they have some strong things going for them — particularly PayPal. I’m not going to do a full analysis on these, but check them out if you get some time. PayPal owns more than double the market share of its closest competitors when it comes to online payment platforms. And Intel is undergoing a huge shift in their business model that will move them into the manufacturing game. With all the hype around Nvidia and AMD, I think Intel will see strong revenue over the next decade.

Both of these companies have seen muted performance compared to their peers. The market seems to be obsessed with “the next big thing,” but we’ve seen how quick hype tends to die down. To clarify, I do think AI is going to revolutionize the world — I just think the moves so far have been exaggerated for where the market currently is. Here’s something I tend to tell myself a lot: “If everyone’s already talking about it, you’re too late.”

Is the S&P topping?

SPY seems to be overextended anywhere over 562. That doesn’t mean things can’t change (we saw it back in January), but I am betting on the market topping very soon.

I’ve accumulated short shares of SPYU, TQQQ, and NVDA, as well as some long-side positions in OXY and DVN. I wanted some exposure to oil after the recent downturn. These are the positions I’ll be riding out into 2025, albeit with some rebalancing along the way.