SPY saw some selling today, but only enough to retest the rising wedge. The selling was also in line with a rising VIX, so unless volatility continues tomorrow, this may have just been a temporary red day.

Volatility picking back up

Charting the VIX is difficult, so whether this drop was a retest of resistance or a recovery of support is yet to be seen. Here are two scenarios that are just as valid:

If the first chart plays out, SPY should rally tomorrow, potentially to all-time highs. If the second chart ends up reflecting future price action, the selling has just begun.

Jackson Hole: Bullish or bearish?

The Jackson Hole symposium is tomorrow and hasn’t been followed by very much upside in the past. Of course, history doesn’t always repeat, but it’s definitely worth being aware of as we move into the election. In the last four years, the market has rallied on the day of the symposium but saw some substantial declines in the following days and weeks.

If the market rallies tomorrow, I’ll add short shares again in NVDA and SPY next week.